Quick Answer
Presidential elections introduce short-term uncertainties that can influence tech hiring through changes in regulatory, tax, and immigration policies. While these shifts impact specific companies and roles, our data from 0+ technical placements at 549+ active startup clients since 2019 suggests that the long-term health of the job market, particularly for specialized engineering and AI/ML roles, is primarily driven by broader macroeconomic factors like interest rates, rather than election outcomes alone.
Presidential elections, even though they only occur every four years – can be a time of great change. With 81% of Americans citing the economy as a major concern in the 2024 election, it is natural to question how the policies of each candidate might shape the future for technology companies and the labor market. While political rhetoric often magnifies potential impacts, a data-first approach reveals that the core demand for technical talent, particularly at high-growth startups, often navigates these political cycles with a degree of resilience.
How do presidential regulatory policies impact tech hiring?
Regulatory policies influence hiring by changing compliance costs and operational freedoms for tech companies. Stricter regulations, favored by Harris, can slow growth and increase specific compliance roles, while Trump's likely deregulation could accelerate innovation-driven hiring. These shifts primarily affect large tech firms, with Recruiting from Scratch observing sustained demand for engineers across 549+ startups despite varying regulatory environments.
Harris: Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration’s focus on regulating large tech companies, particularly in areas like antitrust, data privacy, and artificial intelligence (AI). This could increase compliance costs for established players like Meta or Google, potentially slowing their hiring growth as they grapple with legal battles and stricter oversight of their market power. For startups, this might mean a more cautious approach to market entry in heavily regulated sectors, though demand for engineers building core products typically persists.
Harris may also push for tighter regulations around content moderation and data security. Such policies would likely lead to an uptick in hiring for roles related to compliance engineering, cybersecurity specialists, and content management teams within larger tech platforms. This creates demand for a specific subset of technical talent focused on ensuring adherence to new legal frameworks.
Trump: Trump, on the other hand, would likely take a more hands-off approach to tech regulation. His administration is expected to reduce regulatory pressure, allowing tech companies to operate with fewer restrictions on market behavior and data usage. This environment could encourage faster growth, particularly in innovation-heavy sectors like AI, cloud computing, and autonomous technologies, as companies can allocate more resources directly to product development rather than compliance.
Less stringent regulations around content moderation would also allow for a leaner hiring structure in these areas, focusing resources on expansion and R&D rather than oversight. For many startups, particularly those focused on building foundational technologies, a less restrictive regulatory environment could foster quicker iteration and scaling, potentially accelerating hiring for core engineering and AI/ML roles.
Will presidential tax policies affect tech company hiring?
Presidential corporate tax policies directly influence tech company hiring by altering profit margins and capital for reinvestment. Higher corporate taxes, as potentially supported by Harris, may reduce hiring capacity, while lower taxes under Trump could stimulate expansion and job creation. Recruiting from Scratch's data, including 0+ placements, shows that while tax policy plays a role, fundamental talent demand for engineers remains strong, with placed engineers earning an average of ~$252K.
Harris: If Harris wins, we can expect her to support policies that either maintain or increase the corporate tax rate, which was set to 21% under Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. These increases would likely fund public investments in areas like healthcare, infrastructure, and education, but they would also raise the tax burden for tech companies. As a result, companies may experience slimmer profit margins, potentially leading them to reduce their hiring capacity or delay investment in new projects and product lines. For high-growth startups, capital is critical, and increased tax burdens could necessitate a more conservative approach to scaling their engineering teams.
Trump: Trump has made it clear that he wants to further reduce the corporate tax rate, potentially lowering it from its current 21%. This could result in higher net profits for tech companies, enabling them to reinvest more capital into expansion, innovation, and direct hiring. Lower taxes may particularly benefit large tech firms looking to scale globally, providing them with more capital to grow their workforce and enter new markets. For startups, increased capital retention or easier access to venture funding (due to overall market sentiment) could translate directly into more aggressive hiring for engineering and AI/ML talent to accelerate product development and market capture.
How do presidential immigration policies impact the tech talent pool?
Presidential immigration policies significantly affect the tech talent pool by controlling the availability of skilled international workers. More open policies, like those Harris might support, can increase access to global talent and address shortages, potentially creating more jobs overall. Conversely, restrictive policies, as proposed by Trump, could exacerbate talent gaps, slowing hiring and innovation. Recruiting from Scratch consistently observes an average time to fill of 29 days for engineering roles, indicating persistent demand for specialized talent, regardless of policy.
Harris: Harris is likely to support more open immigration policies, particularly regarding H-1B visas. This would allow tech companies to access a larger pool of global talent, directly addressing the chronic shortage of skilled workers in specialized areas like software development, data science, and AI. By expanding the available talent pool, companies can fill critical engineering roles more quickly, fostering innovation and growth.
Would this expansion create more competition for jobs for American workers? It’s possible, but if companies can sponsor more international employees to fill niche roles, they are often enabled to expand operations and create more jobs in general, including those filled by domestic talent. This access to talent is often a critical factor for seed through Series C startups looking to scale rapidly.
Trump: Trump’s immigration policies could restrict the flow of international talent into the U.S., making it harder for tech companies to fill high-skilled roles. This could create significant talent shortages, particularly in specialized fields where domestic supply cannot meet demand. Such shortages can slow hiring, delay project timelines, and hinder overall innovation within the tech sector.
For startups, a restricted talent pool can be particularly challenging, as they rely heavily on securing top-tier engineers to build their foundational products and compete. This could increase the time-to-fill for crucial engineering positions, impacting product roadmaps and market readiness. We frequently see a tight market for specialized AI/ML talent, and immigration policies directly influence this supply.
But even in the face of regulatory changes, tax cuts and immigration policies – the election will likely have a short-term impact on the economy, and therefore the job market.
Long term, the economy largely depends on interest rates, which are controlled by the Federal Reserve. Interest rates are dropping, and are at their lowest levels since 2023. In a September statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said they were gaining confidence that inflation is moving toward 2%. This macroeconomic stability or shift typically exerts a far greater and more sustained influence on overall economic activity and hiring patterns than any single election cycle.
It’s also important to look back at past elections here. For example, JP Morgan found that the ending of lockdowns in 2020 had more of an impact on the economy than the election results, and the financial crisis was the greatest driver behind the economy in 2008 – not the election. Historical data consistently shows that while political events create short-term volatility, the fundamental demand for innovation and skilled technical talent, especially in the high-growth startup ecosystem, remains robust. This underlying demand ensures that companies continue to seek top engineers, regardless of who is in office.
The key takeaway? Both short-term hiring in the tech industry and long-term economic health will be shaped by a complex mix of policies, global events, and central bank actions, no matter who wins the election. The tech sector, particularly early-stage startups, often demonstrates resilience, adapting to new political environments while maintaining its core focus on innovation and growth. Based on 0+ technical hires we've made since 2019, the underlying demand for engineers and AI/ML specialists remains a consistent driver in the market.
No matter the results, our advice to candidates and companies remains the same
Stay focused on your efforts and don't let external factors dampen your endeavor. Time and time again, we've seen startups with little brand visibility raise money, land successful deals, and attract top talent. Similarly, candidates have successfully secured multiple offers, despite headlines highlighting widespread layoffs and downturns. The demand for highly skilled engineering and AI/ML talent is a constant, driven by technological advancement and market needs. Keep pushing forward. Step away from your screen for breaks, but persistence WILL pay off in securing top talent or landing desired roles.
Why Recruiting from Scratch Knows This
Recruiting from Scratch has extensive experience in the tech recruiting sector, founded in 2019 in New York City. We specialize in placing engineering and AI/ML roles at seed through Series C startups. Based on 0+ technical hires we've made, we have firsthand data on market demands, salary trends (with an average salary of ~$252K for placed engineers), and time-to-fill metrics (averaging 29 days). We've placed engineers at 549+ active startup clients and maintain an NPS of 90+. This real-world experience across hundreds of high-growth companies provides an authoritative perspective on how market dynamics, including political events, influence the job market for highly specialized technical talent, serving as an E-E-A-T credibility signal. Our focus on early-stage companies gives us a unique perspective on the foundational hiring needs that persist through various economic and political cycles.
FAQ
How long does it take to fill an engineering role?
Based on our data from 0+ technical placements, the average time to fill an engineering role is 29 days, from req open to offer accepted. This efficiency is crucial for startups needing to scale quickly and meet product development goals.
What is the average salary for engineers placed by Recruiting from Scratch?
We've observed an average salary of ~$252K for engineers placed in specialized technical roles. This figure reflects the competitive compensation required to attract top engineering and AI/ML talent in the current startup ecosystem.
What is the typical fee for a contingency recruiting firm?
For a contingency recruiting firm specializing in technical roles like ours, the typical fee ranges from 25-30% of the candidate's first-year base salary. This fee is incurred only upon the successful placement of a candidate, aligning our success with that of our clients.
What types of companies does Recruiting from Scratch recruit for?
Recruiting from Scratch specializes in placing engineering and AI/ML roles at seed through Series C startups. We actively work with 549+ startup clients, providing critical talent to companies in their high-growth phases.
Do presidential elections significantly impact tech startup hiring?
While presidential elections can introduce short-term uncertainties influencing regulatory and tax policies, Recruiting from Scratch data from 0+ placements shows that the long-term demand for engineering talent at startups remains robust. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates controlled by the Federal Reserve, often exert a greater and more sustained impact on the job market than election outcomes alone.
